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6

Noche Clasica

4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 98

Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y

#9

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive filly who looked right at home stepped up to listed level when fourth at Haydock (10.5f) in May but couldn't extend her upward curve when 19½ lengths last of 15 to Blue Bolt in Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot (1m, good to firm) 52 days ago. Back down in grade now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 10/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m5y Std 12710/0455 @ Doncaster 26/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f6y Goo 1284 @ Chester 31/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Gd 12831/0544 @ Goodwood 22/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 76 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 76 par2 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m GS 121 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 83 par6/092OR 833 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 7f219y Goo 130 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 89 · 1m208y Gd 129 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 89 par12/043OR 891 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 96 · 1m2f100y Goo 128 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 98 · 7f213y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 98 par17/061OR 98projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-17Royal Ascot115th15th+0
2026-05-23Haydock14th4th0
2026-04-12Musselburgh31st4th−2
2025-10-27Redcar31st4th−2
2025-09-06Ascot23rd4th−1
2025-08-22Goodwood41st5th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0422/0812/0417/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20256th7/163%29%-0.35
26/04/20254th18/15%73%+0.67
31/05/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
22/08/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
06/09/20253rd5/287%71%-0.15
27/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
12/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
23/05/20264th4/179%57%-0.22
17/06/202615th40/10%0%0.00