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10

Pacific Mission

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 107

Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Followed victory in 7f novice at Kempton last summer with excellent second in Group 2 May Hill at Doncaster and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf at Del Mar. Looked back to form after a disappointing return when 10¾ lengths third of 7 in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom in June.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength31%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 25/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 6f Goo 12825/0735 @ Kempton 13/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 12813/0851 @ Doncaster 11/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS11/091C0 @ Del Mar 31/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 101 par31/10C?OR 1011 @ York 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 109 · 7f192y Gd 128 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 109 par15/051OR 1091 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 109 · 1m113y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 109 par6/061OR 109projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06Epsom Downs13rd3rd+0
2026-05-15York15th5th0
2025-10-31Del Mar?2nd1st+1
2025-09-11Doncaster12nd2nd+0
2025-08-13Kempton51st6th−4
2025-07-25Ascot36th9th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0713/0811/0931/1015/056/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/07/20256th6/168%17%-0.52
13/08/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
11/09/20252nd11/142%86%+0.44
31/10/20252nd12/137%91%+0.54
15/05/20265th3/184%33%-0.51
06/06/20263rd15/261%67%+0.06