7
Rumba Numba
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 92
Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y
#6
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength19%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-07-29 | Goodwood | 3 | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-06-17 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-05-22 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 22/05/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 29/07/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.56 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |