Silenciosa

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 96

Haydock · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Fillies' & Mares' Listed) · 7f 212y

#10

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▲1

Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C1.7

Today: 1

Class gap: -0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-04	Sandown	1	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-03	Newmarket	1	14th	13th	+1	1.0
2026-04-18	Newbury	1	6th	6th	+0	4.2
2025-12-19	Southwell	5	1st	6th	−4	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 11

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength89%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/12/2025	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
18/04/2026	6th	33/1	0%	62%	+0.62
03/05/2026	14th	80/1	0%	28%	+0.28
04/07/2026	2nd	11/1	42%	86%	+0.44