Christian David
5yo Horse · 9-8 · OR 87
Haydock · Betway Ashton Heath Handicap · 6f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 2 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lingfield | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Newmarket | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 07/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |