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Crimson Spirit

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 95

Haydock · Betway Ashton Heath Handicap · 6f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Likeable type who got back on the up with success in 20-runner handicap at Goodwood (7f, good to firm) 10 days ago. Avoided the trouble there but he remains one to be very positive about up 4 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Epsom Downs 25/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 90 · 7f3y Goo 135 · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 90 par25/083OR 903 @ Sandown 12/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 89 · 7f Sft 129 · beat its mark12/09/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 88 · 7f Goo 136 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 88 par14/103OR 883 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 87 · 7f Gd 128 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 87 · 7f1y Gd 132 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 87 par6/053OR 873 @ Goodwood 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 86 · 7f Gd 131 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 90 · 7f3y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 90 par5/062OR 903 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 90 · 7f GF 142 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 91 · 7f Goo 132 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 91 par29/073OR 91projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-29Goodwood31st1st0
2026-07-11Newmarket32nd2nd0
2026-06-05Epsom Downs24th3rd+1
2026-05-22Goodwood31st1st0
2026-05-06Chester310th10th0
2026-04-16Newmarket33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0816/045/0629/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/08/20254th5/174%63%-0.11
12/09/20254th4/179%63%-0.16
14/10/202511th17/255%29%-0.27
16/04/20263rd12/137%88%+0.51
06/05/202610th11/142%25%-0.17
22/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
05/06/20264th17/255%80%+0.25
11/07/20262nd11/271%90%+0.19
29/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29