7
Moonshine
3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 83
Haydock · Betway Ashton Heath Handicap · 6f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Yarmouth | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-08-08 | Haydock | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Newbury | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 89% | -0.09 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |