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6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 82
Haydock · Betway Ashton Heath Handicap · 6f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | York | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Doncaster | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thirsk | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redcar | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2024 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 13/04/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 20/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 16/05/2026 | 13th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 11/07/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 01/08/2026 | 15th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |