2
Pellitory
4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 94
Haydock · Betway Ashton Heath Handicap · 6f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 3 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 26th | 25th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Newmarket | 2 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2025-09-07 | York | 1 | 5th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/08/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 22/08/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/09/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/09/2025 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/05/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 18/06/2026 | 26th | 50/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 94% | +0.67 |
| 29/07/2026 | 16th | 22/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |