Napolian
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 69
Haydock · Betway Tanners Bridge Handicap · 6f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | York | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Leicester | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Haydock | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 04/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 42% | +0.05 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/07/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |