9
Norfolk Blue
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 67
Haydock · Betway Tanners Bridge Handicap · 6f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Ffos Las | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Yarmouth | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 21/08/2025 | 14th | 66/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 18/09/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 14/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |