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7

Arctic Thunder

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 88

Haydock · Betway Capital City Handicap · 7f 212y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Easily ended a long losing sequence in 4-runner handicap at Salisbury (1m, good) 18 days ago. Up 7 lb here though and this is tougher.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 88 · 6f Std 136 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 88 par21/083OR 883 @ Haydock 05/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 86 · 6f212y Goo 138 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 86 par3 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 86 par20/093OR 863 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 86 par3 @ Newbury 17/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 126 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 86 par17/043OR 863 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 85 · 7f1y Gd 130 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Epsom Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 84 · 7f3y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 84 par5/062OR 844 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 83 · 1m Sta 140 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Salisbury 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 81 · 1m Goo 131 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 81 par21/073OR 81projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Salisbury31st1st0
2026-06-29Kempton48th9th−1
2026-06-05Epsom Downs26th5th+1
2026-05-06Chester37th7th0
2026-04-17Newbury312th12th0
2025-10-14Leicester34th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0814/105/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength98%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/08/202510th7/163%31%-0.32
05/09/20254th5/287%70%-0.17
20/09/20253rd9/276%80%+0.04
14/10/20254th4/179%79%-0.00
17/04/202612th11/271%27%-0.44
06/05/20267th7/282%50%-0.32
05/06/20266th11/142%67%+0.25
29/06/20268th11/142%46%+0.04
21/07/20261st11/486%100%+0.14