13
Financer
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77
Haydock · Betway Capital City Handicap · 7f 212y
#10
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Redcar | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 18th | 13/2 | 66% | 6% | -0.60 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 67% | +0.11 |
| 15/05/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 69% | -0.10 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 79% | +0.36 |