12
Inspired
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 79
Haydock · Betway Capital City Handicap · 7f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wetherby | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 04/06/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 77% | -0.16 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 79% | 0.00 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |