11
King Casper
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 82
Haydock · Betway Capital City Handicap · 7f 212y
#12
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | York | 3 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | York | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Goodwood | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-06-20 | Newmarket | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Haydock | 2 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/09/2024 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 17/04/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 24/05/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 20/06/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 31/07/2025 | 15th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/09/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/07/2026 | 17th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |