9
Leadman
6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 84
Haydock · Betway Capital City Handicap · 7f 212y
#8
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 17th | 18th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | York | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength32%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.12 |
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 42% | -0.11 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 95% | +0.53 |
| 23/05/2026 | 17th | 10/3 | 82% | 24% | -0.59 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 74% | +0.03 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |