IvyArcIvyArc
8

Tilted Kilt

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 85

Haydock · Betway Capital City Handicap · 7f 212y

#6

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful at Southwell in April but has failed to kick on since, though not totally disgraced with eighth of 17 in handicap at York (7f, good to firm) 29 days ago. This return to 1m should suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Southwell 13/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 87 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 87 par13/073OR 873 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 85 · 1m142y Std 124 · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 84 · 1m5y Std 126 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 84 par21/083OR 844 @ Haydock 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 82 · 1m37y Gd 132 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 82 par2 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 83 · 7f212y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 83 par27/092OR 834 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 83 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Ascot 01/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 132 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 87 par1/053OR 872 @ Sandown 13/06/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 87 par3 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 86 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 86 par10/073OR 86projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10York38th8th0
2026-06-13Sandown212th11th+1
2026-05-01Ascot37th7th0
2026-04-09Southwell41st2nd−1
2025-09-27Haydock28th7th+1
2025-09-06Haydock42nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/076/091/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength22%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20257th8/158%50%-0.08
31/07/20253rd7/163%80%+0.17
21/08/202514th10/147%0%-0.47
06/09/20252nd8/158%86%+0.28
27/09/20258th17/255%22%-0.33
09/04/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
01/05/20267th17/255%40%-0.15
13/06/202612th33/10%0%0.00
10/07/20268th22/10%56%+0.56