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3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 74

Haydock · Betway Apprentice Handicap · 7f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Visored and much improved to get off the mark in 1m handicap at Sandown 10 days ago, pulling clear with a progressive type. Not seen to best effect under a change of tactics (held up, pulled hard) at Newmarket on Thursday and may still have more to offer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 15/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0845 @ Kempton 27/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m Sta 1333 @ Haydock 04/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 7f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4/0934 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m2f70y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m2f70y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 72 par12/064OR 725 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m2f GF 129 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Sandown 29/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 70 par29/075OR 705 @ Newmarket 06/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 70 · 1m GF 138 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 70 par6/085OR 70projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Newmarket55th5th0
2026-07-29Sandown51st1st0
2026-07-02Newbury59th9th0
2026-06-12Chester48th7th+1
2026-05-30Chester43rd2nd+1
2025-09-04Haydock34th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0830/0529/076/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/08/20256th2/189%17%-0.73
27/08/20254th25/10%70%+0.70
04/09/20254th28/10%63%+0.63
30/05/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
12/06/20268th15/261%13%-0.48
02/07/20269th22/10%20%+0.20
29/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
06/08/20265th13/266%33%-0.32