6
First Ascent
5yo Gelding · 11-4
Kilbeggan · Well Of Moate Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Roscommon | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-02 | Galway | BHA78 | 14th | 14th | +0 |
| 2025-06-21 | Down Royal | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-30 | Down Royal | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 65% | +0.59 |
| 19/05/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 30/05/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 21/06/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 02/08/2025 | 14th | 16/1 | 16% | 24% | +0.08 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |