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2

Blue Reed

7yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 92

Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#8

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally off the mark in 14-runner handicap hurdle here(19f) in May. Backed it up with a good second in 7-runner handicap chase at Cartmel (17f, good to soft) but was below form back over the smaller obstacles at Killarney recently. Bounce back called for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA91 @ Fairyhouse 21/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 91 · 2m4f80y Hvy 155 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 91 par21/1191OR 91BHA89 @ Punchestown 31/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 89 · 2m105y Yie 157 · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 89 parBHA93 @ Fairyhouse 15/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 93 · 2m4f Sft 161 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 93 par15/0193OR 93BHA91 @ Clonmel 26/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 91 · 2m76y Hvy 165 · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 91 parBHA88 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 88 · 2m1f165y Yie 144 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 88 par29/0388OR 88BHA87 @ Bellewstown 18/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 87 · 2m1f30y Yie 143 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 87 parBHA87 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 87 · 2m3f20y Goo 155 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 87 par31/0587OR 875 @ Cartmel 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 97 · 2m1f61y Goo 160 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 97 parBHA92 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 92 · 2m4f85y Goo 144 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 92 par16/0792OR 92projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA927th7th0
2026-06-28Cartmel52nd2nd0
2026-05-31KilbegganBHA871st1st0
2026-04-18BellewstownBHA875th5th0
2026-03-29DownpatrickBHA884th4th0
2026-02-26ClonmelBHA917th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1126/0231/0516/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20254th15/261%79%+0.18
31/12/20252nd3/184%94%+0.10
15/01/20266th9/153%67%+0.14
26/02/20267th7/282%40%-0.42
29/03/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
18/04/20265th17/255%64%+0.08
31/05/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
28/06/20262nd9/153%83%+0.31
16/07/20267th18/15%33%+0.28