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11

Bravemans Bounce

4yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 86

Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#11

Rank

Odds

125/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held all 3 starts to date and looks to have been done no favours by the handicapper.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 9.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m Hvy 16128/02C8C8 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 1539/05C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f153y Goo 16015/05C8projClass-projected finish: 13th of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-15Kilbeggan?9th9th0
2026-05-09Killarney?11th11th0
2026-02-28Navan?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/029/0515/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/02/20268th200/10%13%+0.13
09/05/202611th250/10%23%+0.23
15/05/20269th125/10%38%+0.38