7
Convincing
5yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 87
Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#9
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Naas | BHA54 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | BHA58 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | BHA61 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-15 | Curragh | BHA63 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Punchestown | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 21/11/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 31% | -0.38 |
| 26/12/2025 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 11/01/2026 | 13th | 125/1 | 0% | 37% | +0.37 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 15/03/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 68% | +0.26 |
| 30/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 15/07/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 76% | +0.34 |