10
Ferdia
10yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 84
Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#2
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
24%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA87 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA89 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA92 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA95 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA100 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-10 | Limerick | BHA100 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2022 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 12/10/2022 | 4th | 125/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 16/10/2022 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 29/10/2022 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 09/01/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 24/04/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |