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Folk Warrior

4yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 93

Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#10

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Steady progress in a trio of juvenile maiden hurdles last season and hasn't been disgraced since sent handicapping at a low level on the Flat this summer. May improve again now entering handicaps over hurdles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 17/10/2024 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 1m Yie 12617/10C8C8 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR - · 1m2f Yie 134C8 @ Fairyhouse 04/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m Sft 1544/11C8C8 @ Punchestown 31/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 2m105y Yie 154C8 @ Limerick 31/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m Sft 16131/03C8BHA48 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 48 · 1m4f Std 130 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 48 parBHA47 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 47 · 1m2f96y Sft 129 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 47 par20/0647OR 47BHA45 @ Leopardstown 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 45 · 1m1f Goo 127 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 45 parBHA45 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m4f Std 119 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 45 par12/0745OR 45projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12DundalkBHA455th5th0
2026-07-09LeopardstownBHA457th7th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA474th4th0
2026-05-26DundalkBHA485th5th0
2026-03-31Limerick?7th7th0
2025-12-31Punchestown?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1031/1220/0612/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/202413th250/10%0%0.00
27/09/202514th400/10%19%+0.19
04/11/202511th66/10%23%+0.23
31/12/20257th250/10%50%+0.50
31/03/20267th200/10%40%+0.40
26/05/20265th25/10%67%+0.67
20/06/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
09/07/20267th12/137%71%+0.35
12/07/20265th7/282%60%-0.22