1
Liceo
6yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 100
Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA102 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA100 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Cork | BHA102 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Dundalk | BHA77 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Gowran Park | BHA104 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength97%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 22/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 08/09/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 84% | +0.84 |
| 03/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 07/11/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 10/05/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |