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14

Surviving Murmansk

8yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 73

Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has an ordinary strike rate but bounced back to form ridden more positively than usual when second of 16 in handicap at Cork (17f, good to soft) 5 days ago, albeit having run of race. Possibilities if backing that up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Kilbeggan 09/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 72 · 2m Goo 140 · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 72 par9/0872OR 72BHA73 @ Tramore 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 73 · 2m140y Gd 142 · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 73 parBHA73 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 73 · 2m1f111y Gd 149 · below its mark20/08/2025 · OR 73 par20/0873OR 73BHA78 @ Tramore 09/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 2m Yie 148 · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 78 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 53 par21/1153OR 53BHA77 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 77 · 2m50y Goo 145 · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 77 parBHA50 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m4f Goo 134 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 50 par7/0750OR 50BHA76 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 76 · 2m2f200y Gd 144 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 76 parBHA73 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 73 · 2m1f Goo 142 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 73 par3/0873OR 73projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03CorkBHA732nd2nd0
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA7611th11th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA5010th10th0
2026-05-30TramoreBHA776th6th0
2025-11-21DundalkBHA5313th13th0
2025-10-09TramoreBHA786th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/089/107/073/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength66%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20252nd11/271%92%+0.21
17/08/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
20/08/20257th4/179%25%-0.54
09/10/20256th11/271%29%-0.42
21/11/202513th125/10%8%+0.08
30/05/20266th40/10%64%+0.64
07/07/202610th40/10%18%+0.18
24/07/202611th28/10%33%+0.33
03/08/20262nd33/10%93%+0.93