IvyArcIvyArc
3

Syosset

5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 92

Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is progressing gradually, unlucky to bump into a handicap blot in 16-runner event at Cork (17f, good to soft, 7/1) 5 days ago. Excellent conditional now takes over in the saddle and expected to be on the premises again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 27/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 1m2f Yie 13927/09C8C8 @ Roscommon 13/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f95y Sft 138C8 @ Dundalk 24/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f150y Std 13924/10C8BHA53 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 136 · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 53 parBHA59 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 59 · 1m4f Std 141 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 59 par21/1159OR 59BHA59 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m4f Std 141 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 59 parBHA84 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 84 · 1m7f204y Gd 152 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 84 par6/0784OR 84BHA85 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 85 · 2m150y Gd 157 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 85 parBHA88 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 88 · 2m1f Goo 156 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 88 par3/0888OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03CorkBHA882nd2nd0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA852nd2nd0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA843rd3rd0
2026-03-06DundalkBHA597th7th0
2025-11-21DundalkBHA593rd3rd0
2025-11-14DundalkBHA531st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0914/116/073/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength97%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/202512th200/10%21%+0.21
13/10/20259th250/10%20%+0.20
24/10/202510th300/10%31%+0.31
14/11/20251st50/10%100%+1.00
21/11/20253rd7/163%85%+0.21
06/03/20267th9/153%54%+0.01
06/07/20263rd14/126%87%+0.60
23/07/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
03/08/20262nd7/163%93%+0.30