4
Valsorpresa
8yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 91
Kilbeggan · Kieran Kelly Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA93 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Ballinrobe | BHA94 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Galway | BHA97 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Galway | BHA100 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Kilbeggan | BHA104 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Tipperary | BHA106 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2024 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 02/11/2024 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 15/12/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 03/07/2025 | 15th | 50/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 25/07/2025 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/10/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/05/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |