1
Forlio
7yo Gelding · 11-12
Kilbeggan · Bernard Kenny Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength69%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA73 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA62 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | BHA62 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Roscommon | BHA62 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength40%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.37 |
| 07/11/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 29/07/2026 | 18th | 25/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |