3

Master Sydney

5yo Mare · 11-5

Kilbeggan · Bernard Kenny Maiden Hurdle · 2m 3f

#3

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed himself to be fair on the Flat (stays 2m) following a bumper success and offered something to work on sent hurdling when a well-held fourth of 18 in 2¼m maiden at Cork 5 days ago. Entitled to do better.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength36%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m4f Yie 1391/08C8C8 @ Tramore 14/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m Yie 149C8 @ Roscommon 01/09/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 1m4f17y Sft 1371/09C8BHA69 @ Down Royal 29/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m4f194y Yie 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/09/2025 · OR 69 parBHA68 @ Navan 25/04/2026 · Pos 21st of 23 · OR 68 · 1m2f40y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 68 par25/0468OR 68BHA67 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 67 · 1m4f46y Gd 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 67 parBHA65 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 65 · 1m5f170y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/05/2026 · OR 65 par20/0565OR 65BHA65 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 65 · 2m Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 65 parC8 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 1593/08C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Cork?4th4th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA658th6th+2
2026-05-20Gowran ParkBHA6512th10th+2
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA676th4th+1
2026-04-25NavanBHA6821th20th+1
2025-09-29Down RoyalBHA694th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0829/0920/053/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength57%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/08/20259th14/126%11%-0.15
14/08/20253rd5/174%78%+0.04
01/09/202512th10/147%21%-0.26
29/09/20254th33/10%57%+0.57
25/04/202621st25/10%9%+0.09
11/05/20266th16/116%62%+0.46
20/05/202612th9/276%8%-0.68
07/07/20268th13/266%30%-0.36
03/08/20264th13/266%82%+0.17