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Drumgill

7yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 123

Kilbeggan · Joe Cooney Memorial Hurdle · 3m 1f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yard was in top form when he turned in his best effort this season when 14 lengths fourth of 9 in a handicap chase at Killarney (17f) last month but below that level at Galway last week and others make greater appeal as he reverts to hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA129 @ Punchestown 22/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 129 · 2m5f70y Sft 146 · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 129 par22/11129OR 1291 @ Fairyhouse 29/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 129 · 2m1f30y Yie 146 · beat its mark29/11/2025 · OR 129 par1 @ Fairyhouse 14/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 137 · 2m1f30y Yie 151 · below its mark14/01/2026 · OR 137 par14/011OR 1371 @ Leopardstown 02/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 136 · 2m1f Sft 155 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 136 par1 @ Naas 22/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 135 · 2m Hvy 155 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 135 par22/021OR 1351 @ Ballinrobe 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 134 · 2m7f80y Goo 154 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 134 parBHA132 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 132 · 2m4f Goo 158 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 132 par15/06132OR 132BHA128 @ Killarney 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 128 · 2m1f Goo 156 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 128 parBHA125 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 125 · 2m2f54y Goo 141 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 125 par2/08125OR 125projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02GalwayBHA1258th8th0
2026-07-17KillarneyBHA1284th4th0
2026-07-10Kilbeggan10
2026-06-15KilbegganBHA1325th5th0
2026-05-25Ballinrobe17th7th0
2026-03-07Gowran ParkBHA1340

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/112/0215/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength78%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20253rd10/147%71%+0.24
29/11/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
14/01/20268th12/137%36%-0.00
02/02/20269th33/10%38%+0.38
22/02/20265th28/10%0%0.00
25/05/20267th18/15%60%+0.55
15/06/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
17/07/20264th16/116%63%+0.47
02/08/20268th6/168%30%-0.38