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2

Anodandawink

5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 103

Kilbeggan · Smiddys Pub Mullingar Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 50y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Offered something to work on when second of 6 in novice chase at Downpatrick (3m, good to firm, 5/1) on debut over fences and produced a good round of jumping to go one place better in a 15-runner handicap chase at Wexford (25f, good to firm, 3/1) 17 days ago. Up 10 lb but open to improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 22/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 24 · OR - · 2m3f87y Sft 16122/11C8C8 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR - · 2m3f Sft 161C8 @ Naas 09/01/2026 · Pos 14th of 25 · OR - · 2m Yie 1669/01C8BHA94 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 94 · 2m2f188y Sft 162 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 94 parBHA92 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 92 · 3m154y Goo 160 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 92 par24/0492OR 92BHA94 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 94 · 2m3f20y Goo 162 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 94 parBHA93 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 93 · 2m7f150y Gd 166 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 93 par13/0693OR 93BHA93 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 93 · 3m155y Gd 161 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 93 par22/0793OR 93projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22WexfordBHA931st1st0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA932nd2nd0
2026-05-31KilbegganBHA949th9th0
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA923rd3rd0
2026-03-26ClonmelBHA9411th11th0
2026-01-09Naas?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1126/0313/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength74%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/202514th80/10%43%+0.43
15/12/202514th125/10%32%+0.32
09/01/202614th150/10%46%+0.46
26/03/202611th9/153%33%-0.19
24/04/20263rd14/126%87%+0.60
31/05/20269th10/382%38%-0.44
13/06/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
22/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16