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3

Mistyburn

6yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 89

Kilbeggan · Smiddys Pub Mullingar Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 50y

#3

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed 16-runner handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan in April, albeit looking a fortunate winner (left in front last). Produced his best effort to date over fences when coming from a long way back to finish third of 18 in handicap chase at Galway (23f, good to soft) 6 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Limerick 18/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 2m2f150y Hvy 16618/11C8C8 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m110y Hvy 166C8 @ Thurles 20/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 2m26y Yie 16620/12C8C0 @ Gowran Park 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 2m3f70y Hvy 166BHA89 @ Cork 19/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 89 · 3m45y Yie 156 · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 89 par19/0389OR 89BHA87 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 87 · 3m154y Goo 155 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 87 parBHA90 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 90 · 3m157y Goo 146 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 90 par6/0690OR 90BHA92 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 92 · 2m7f180y Gd 160 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 92 parBHA87 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 87 · 2m6f111y Goo 143 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 87 par2/0887OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02GalwayBHA873rd3rd0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA927th7th0
2026-06-06PunchestownBHA906th6th0
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA871st1st0
2026-03-19CorkBHA893rd3rd0
2026-02-14Gowran Park?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1114/026/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/11/202510th28/10%31%+0.31
02/12/20258th28/10%46%+0.46
20/12/202510th200/10%25%+0.25
14/02/20267th250/10%14%+0.14
19/03/20263rd14/126%80%+0.54
24/04/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
06/06/20266th15/261%67%+0.06
06/07/20267th12/137%60%+0.23
02/08/20263rd33/10%88%+0.88