5
The Little Yank
11yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 87
Kilbeggan · Smiddys Pub Mullingar Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 50y
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA92 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | BHA94 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA96 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-10 | Limerick | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-05 | Thurles | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-08 | Clonmel | BHA93 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 17/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 02/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |