IvyArcIvyArc
4

Zolpharine

8yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 89

Kilbeggan · Smiddys Pub Mullingar Handicap Chase · 3m 1f 50y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed the promise of his previous run when readily landing a first win over fences at Limerick last month and had little fuss following up in 16-runner handicap hurdle at Tramore (2¾m, good) 71 days ago. Had plenty in hand then and is respected despite jumping remaining a slight concern.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA85 @ Killarney 05/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 85 · 2m7f100y Yie 153 · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 85 par5/1085OR 85BHA88 @ Clonmel 06/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 88 · 2m1f50y Sft 156 · below its mark06/11/2025 · OR 88 parC8 @ Limerick 29/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 87 · 2m6f120y Sft 143 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 87 par29/12C8OR 87BHA78 @ Thurles 29/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 78 · 2m4f Hvy 146 · below its mark29/01/2026 · OR 78 parBHA83 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 83 · 2m6f170y Hvy 151 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 83 par12/0383OR 83C8 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 81 · 2m7f122y Sft 140 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 81 parBHA78 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m7f110y Yie 146 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 78 par19/0478OR 78BHA77 @ Limerick 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 2m6f160y Gd 145 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 77 parBHA75 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 75 · 2m5f145y Goo 143 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 75 par29/0575OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-29TramoreBHA751st1st0
2026-05-21LimerickBHA771st1st0
2026-04-19TramoreBHA785th5th0
2026-03-26Clonmel?11th11th0
2026-03-12LimerickBHA835th5th0
2026-01-29ThurlesBHA787th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1029/0119/0429/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/10/20252nd14/126%91%+0.65
06/11/202511th22/10%33%+0.33
29/12/20258th66/10%36%+0.36
29/01/20267th18/15%60%+0.55
12/03/20265th28/10%73%+0.73
26/03/202611th14/126%23%-0.03
19/04/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
21/05/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
29/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13