8
Grange Walk
11yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 106
Kilbeggan · KEPAK Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 40y
#8
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA106 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA112 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Ballinrobe | BHA108 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | BHA113 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA113 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Leopardstown | 1 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 18/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 02/02/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |