4
Intense Approach
7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 123
Kilbeggan · KEPAK Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 40y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA127 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bellewstown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Cheltenham | 1 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Navan | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | 3 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-25 | Cheltenham | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength9%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/02/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/04/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/03/2026 | 16th | 80/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 31/07/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 37% | +0.21 |