5
Mickie Angel
8yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 120
Kilbeggan · KEPAK Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 40y
#3
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA120 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA116 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Naas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Limerick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 05/02/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/03/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 04/11/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 02/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 25/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |