6
Rexem
9yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 120
Kilbeggan · KEPAK Handicap Chase · 2m 4f 40y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA120 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA119 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA114 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA119 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA115 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kelso | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 01/01/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |