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2

Balgowan

7yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 57

Lingfield · Saint Lucia Let Her Inspire You Handicap · 1m 7f 169y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/4

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

100%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been in good form this season, winning over C&D in April before finishing runner-up on both subsequent outings, edged out only close home when second of 7 in handicap at Kempton (2m, 7/4) 40 days ago. Can go well again after another slight rise but has unexposed 3-y-os in opposition,

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 29/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m7f169y Std 129 · beat its mark29/05/2025 · OR 55 par29/056OR 556 @ Kempton 25/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 1m7f218y Sta 131 · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 04/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 55 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark04/08/2025 · OR 55 par4/086OR 555 @ Salisbury 29/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 56 · 1m6f44y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 56 par6 @ Southwell 16/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m6f21y Std 136 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 55 par16/106OR 556 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 54 · 1m7f169y Std 131 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 54 · 1m7f169y Std 132 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 54 par27/046OR 546 @ Lingfield 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 2m68y Goo 131 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 56 · 1m7f218y Sta 133 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 56 par29/066OR 56projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-29Kempton62nd2nd0
2026-05-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-04-27Lingfield61st1st0
2026-03-27Lingfield63rd3rd0
2025-10-16Southwell64th4th0
2025-08-29Salisbury57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0529/0827/0429/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20256th11/486%38%-0.48
25/06/20253rd20/10%78%+0.78
04/08/20253rd10/147%82%+0.34
29/08/20257th18/15%50%+0.45
16/10/20254th17/255%63%+0.07
27/03/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43
27/04/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
18/05/20262nd9/488%89%+0.01
29/06/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07