1

Trooper

6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 58

Lingfield · Saint Lucia Let Her Inspire You Handicap · 1m 7f 169y

#7

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Timeform

Commentary

Five-time winner on the Flat in Germany but hasn't offered much over hurdles for current yard this year and it's been a similar story returned to this sphere on his last 2 outings.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength55%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Taunton 08/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 2m104y Gd 162 · HIGHER CLASS8/0144 @ Fontwell 27/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m1f162y GS 159 · HIGHER CLASS27/0344 @ Wincanton 12/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f50y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS12/0445 @ Stratford 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 76 · 2m70y Goo 146 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 76 par17/055OR 765 @ Goodwood 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 65 · 1m1f11y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 65 par5/065OR 656 @ Lingfield 27/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 62 · 1m5f Goo 132 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 62 par27/066OR 62projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Lingfield64th4th0
2026-06-05Goodwood58th7th+1
2026-05-17Stratford55th4th+1
2026-04-12Wincanton46th4th+2
2026-03-27Fontwell46th4th+2
2026-01-08Taunton48th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0127/0312/0417/055/0627/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength1%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/01/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
27/03/20266th150/10%29%+0.29
12/04/20266th66/10%17%+0.17
17/05/20265th18/15%33%+0.28
05/06/20268th80/10%0%0.00
27/06/20264th28/10%0%0.00