3
Arctic Wind
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 67
Lingfield · Hyatt Inclusive Handicap · 5f 6y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ffos Las | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Bath | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Windsor | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 16/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 18/08/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 02/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |