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Carefree Dream

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 68

Lingfield · Hyatt Inclusive Handicap · 5f 6y

#3

Rank

Odds

22/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Good efforts when runner-up in back-to-back 5f handicaps at Goodwood earlier this summer and ran creditably upped to 6f at Leicester on her penultimate start. Below that level when sixth of 9 in handicap (22/1) at Ascot (5f, good to firm) 15 days ago but drops back in grade now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 30/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 67 · 5f6y Std 128 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 67 par30/085OR 675 @ Bath 13/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 67 · 5f10y Sft 129 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 67 par2 @ Goodwood 24/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 73 par24/092OR 734 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 72 · 5f160y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 5f GS 133 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 70 par4/065OR 704 @ Goodwood 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 70 · 5f Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Goodwood 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 68 par19/064OR 685 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 70 · 6f GF 136 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 70 · 5f GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 70 par24/074OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24Ascot46th5th+1
2026-07-04Leicester54th4th0
2026-06-19Goodwood42nd1st+1
2026-06-12Goodwood42nd1st+1
2026-06-04Ffos Las55th5th0
2026-04-17Bath410th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0817/0419/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength27%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/08/20252nd25/10%80%+0.80
13/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
24/09/202514th200/10%0%0.00
17/04/202610th50/10%25%+0.25
04/06/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
12/06/20262nd9/153%67%+0.14
19/06/20262nd7/163%86%+0.23
04/07/20264th20/10%70%+0.70
24/07/20266th22/10%38%+0.38