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2

Guernsey Lady

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 68

Lingfield · Hyatt Inclusive Handicap · 5f 6y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Encouraging third at Bath on return and backed that up with another solid second in 8-runner handicap at Ffos Las (5f) in June. That form hasn't really worked out but she has at least been dropped another 1 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Royal Ascot 18/06/2025 · Pos 18th of 23 · OR - · 5f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0614 @ Haydock 04/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 78 · 5f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 78 par2 @ Goodwood 30/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 77 · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 77 par30/072OR 774 @ Windsor 18/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 75 · 5f21y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/08/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Lingfield 23/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 73 · 6f1y Std 133 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 73 par23/095OR 734 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 73 · 5f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f1y Std 130 · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 72 par31/125OR 725 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 70 · 5f160y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 5f GS 132 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 69 par4/065OR 69projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-04Ffos Las52nd2nd0
2026-05-22Bath53rd3rd0
2025-12-31Lingfield57th7th0
2025-10-09Chelmsford City44th3rd+1
2025-09-23Lingfield53rd3rd0
2025-08-18Windsor48th7th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0618/0831/124/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/202518th200/10%23%+0.23
04/07/20253rd4/179%50%-0.29
30/07/20259th66/10%20%+0.20
18/08/20258th18/15%13%+0.07
23/09/20253rd16/116%80%+0.64
09/10/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
31/12/20257th20/10%0%0.00
22/05/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
04/06/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04