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3

Artavian

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 55

Lingfield · Bay Gardens Handicap · 1m 5f

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sole win came in 2024 but posted a good third of 11 in handicap at Chepstow (1¼m) in June and shaped as if still in decent form before his stamina ran out when sixth of 9 in handicap (12/1) at this course (2m, all-weather) 33 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 29/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 1m4f51y Std 135 · beat its mark29/04/2025 · OR 64 par29/046OR 645 @ Lingfield 03/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m4f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Kempton 13/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 63 · 1m3f219y Sta 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2025 · OR 63 par13/085OR 635 @ Windsor 08/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 61 · 1m3f99y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m3f219y Sta 136 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 59 par8/106OR 596 @ Nottingham 29/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m2f50y Sft 155 · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m4f14y Std 130 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 58 par28/046OR 586 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 57 · 1m2f Goo 154 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Lingfield 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m7f169y Std 142 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 56 par6/076OR 56projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Lingfield66th6th0
2026-06-15Chepstow63rd3rd0
2026-04-28Southwell67th7th0
2025-10-29Nottingham62nd2nd0
2025-10-08Kempton69th9th0
2025-09-08Windsor59th8th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/048/0928/046/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength70%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20253rd15/890%50%-0.40
03/06/20255th9/276%43%-0.33
13/08/20258th14/126%42%+0.15
08/09/20259th12/137%33%-0.04
08/10/20259th20/10%38%+0.38
29/10/20252nd9/153%83%+0.31
28/04/20267th22/10%33%+0.33
15/06/20263rd4/179%80%+0.01
06/07/20266th12/137%38%+0.01