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7

Cospicua

3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 55

Lingfield · Bay Gardens Handicap · 1m 5f

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual 1½m winner at Kempton early this year. Failed to deliver off the bridle tried on turf for the first time when sixth of 8 in handicap at Yarmouth (11.5f, soft) 58 days ago. Others make more appeal.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 29/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/1045 @ Southwell 26/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0146 @ Kempton 21/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 50 · 1m3f219y Sta 124 · beat its mark21/01/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Newcastle 10/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 54 · 1m4f98y Std 126 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 54 par10/026OR 546 @ Kempton 30/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 1m3f219y Sta 123 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 56 · 1m3f219y Sta 128 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 56 par30/046OR 566 @ Yarmouth 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 56 · 1m3f104y Sft 126 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 56 par11/066OR 56projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-11Yarmouth66th6th0
2026-04-30Kempton66th6th0
2026-03-30Kempton61st1st0
2026-02-10Newcastle65th5th0
2026-01-21Kempton61st1st0
2026-01-01Southwell47th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1021/0130/0411/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength21%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/10/20257th50/10%25%+0.25
26/11/202514th50/10%0%0.00
01/01/20267th150/10%0%0.00
21/01/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
10/02/20265th6/168%20%-0.48
30/03/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
30/04/20266th4/179%38%-0.41
11/06/20266th14/126%29%+0.02