6
Darkest Red
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 61
Lingfield · Bay Gardens Handicap · 1m 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Yarmouth | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Kempton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 4th | 125/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 13/08/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 15/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 14% | -0.59 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |