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4yo Filly · 10-2 · OR 63

Lingfield · Bay Gardens Handicap · 1m 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without Parole filly who finished no better than mid-field in maiden/novice events in the spring. Much improved upped significantly in trip for her handicap debut when a clear second in an 11-runner event at Wolverhampton (1¾m) 18 days ago. Respected again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength89%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m2f Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS28/0433 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f50y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS19/0533 @ Lingfield 04/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 1m2f Std 141 · HIGHER CLASS4/0636 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m5f219y Std 156 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 60 par21/076OR 60projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-06-04Lingfield39th5th+3
2026-05-19Nottingham37th3rd+3
2026-04-28Lingfield35th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0419/054/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/04/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
19/05/20267th125/10%33%+0.33
04/06/20269th200/10%33%+0.33
21/07/20262nd9/153%90%+0.37