4
Arantes Nascimento
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 75
Lingfield · Hewanorra Handicap · 7f 1y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Salisbury | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 02/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 19/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 18/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 08/04/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.21 |