1

Huscal

4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 81

Lingfield · Hewanorra Handicap · 7f 1y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On long losing run but went close a couple of times on the all-weather last autumn and good placed efforts on turf last month. Form suggests he's a bit better on all-weather so potentially on a good mark back on this surface.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Windsor 14/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 84 · 6f12y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 84 par14/083OR 844 @ Kempton 24/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 83 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Kempton 08/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 85 · 7f Sta 131 · beat its mark08/10/2025 · OR 85 par8/104OR 854 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 85 · 7f Sta 137 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 86 · 7f Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 86 par16/043OR 863 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 85 · 7f1y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Windsor 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m31y GF 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 84 par25/053OR 844 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 82 · 7f GF 144 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Lingfield 15/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 81 · 7f135y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 81 par15/073OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Lingfield32nd1st+1
2026-07-02Newbury43rd3rd0
2026-05-25Windsor34th3rd+1
2026-05-06Chester38th7th+1
2026-04-16Newmarket312th11th+1
2025-11-05Kempton42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/085/1125/0515/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength96%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20258th7/163%36%-0.27
24/09/20252nd11/142%90%+0.48
08/10/20255th4/179%69%-0.10
05/11/20252nd17/255%92%+0.37
16/04/202612th12/137%35%-0.02
06/05/20268th10/147%42%-0.06
25/05/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
02/07/20263rd9/153%85%+0.32
15/07/20262nd4/179%67%-0.12